El pronostico de la publicidad local en Estados Unidos no es tan Bueno pero tiene signos de estabilizacion
Ad guru Gordon Borrell has updated his forecast for local advertising in 2018 and beyond, and for traditional outlets — such as newspapers, cable and broadcast TV — it is a mixed bag.
The bad news first:
- At newspapers, local ad revenues, print and digital combined, are expected to fall 10.1 percent. National ad results could be even worse, and they appeared to be in recent financial reports on the fourth quarter of 2017. Borrell's forecast is for local advertising to fall 28 percent over the next five years, but national to decline 54 percent. Local cable's prospects are bad in 2018 too, according to Borrell, down 10.5 percent.
- Actually, 2018 will be a year of healthy advertising growth — 5.3 percent across media types -- buoyed by heavy spending at local TV stations on mid-term Congressional elections. But in the next five years, Borrell expects advertising growth to average out to a puny 0.2 of 1 percent. Marketing budgets will grow in that same period but mostly in digital formats like email and social media.
Offering some comfort to hard-pressed legacy execs, Borrell finds evidence that a combination traditional and new media buy is appealing to about three-quarters of local advertisers. Also Facebook — while still killer competition — is no longer the hot-new-thing it was in 2016 and 2017.
Borrell bases his forecasts on surveys of 7,500 advertisers and agencies. The main research was done in the summer of 2017 but updated with a smaller sample in December and January. He presented the results with some commentary in a webinar March 20.
One of the survey questions asked businesses whether they thought traditional or new digital media were more effective. The split was almost exactly 50-50. Sales people for newspapers or cable should emphasize their benefits and the effectiveness of combination buys, Borrell said.
"Talking trash about digital media doesn't work," he explained, "because the advertisers love digital and buy both."
He also thinks that traditional media can capture a share of growing marketing spending in coming years, if they offer strong help to their customer base in functions like email, analytics and web redesign.
In essence that means acting more like a mini ad agency rather than just selling. In fact, in a part of the survey sampling local ad agencies, a majority cited the adoption of agency functions at traditional media outlets as their most significant competition.
The Dallas Morning News, which bought a half-dozen local ad and marketing agencies several years back, is Borrell's model for moving to new areas of greater opportunity. And in his surveys, 70 percent of the businesses have a single person making ad and marketing decisions — a puzzling and time-sucking activity for which they need help.
While Facebook remains popular, some advertisers are troubled by price increases, a few find the spending ineffective and only a tiny percentage rely on digital marketing alone.
Borrrell was one of the first to flag Facebook's penetration of the local market after the social network had initially targeted national advertising. The more recent reservations he found about using the platform predate the huge hacking and data breach issues now engulfing Facebook, which could impact its credibility as an ad medium and the size of its audience.
In the survey, a little over half the businesses agreed that Facebook would merely stay even or "begin losing steam in 2018 as other platforms (like Snapchat and Facebook's own Instagram) allow more advertising."
I asked Borrell the degree to which legacy media's ad troubles stem from retail store closings as Amazon and Walmart grab a bigger share of the action. While bankruptcies like Toys R Us get the attention, he said, the bigger problem may be consolidationlocally. Neither is likely to be reversed."
"For instance there may be only six major car dealerships left," he said where there used to be a dozen or 20 not long ago. "Of course, there are stores opening too but most of them are at the low end who don't do advertising."
The Telegraph lanza sección de nuevas tecnologías
The Telegraph has launched a new tech vertical, Technology Intelligence. The Telegraph has hired 15 new staffers for the vertical, mostly in editorial, across London; Brussels; Silicon Valley; Taipei, Taiwan; Tel Aviv, Israel; and Washington, D.C. This is its biggest editorial investment to date, according to the publisher.
Technology Intelligence will cover device reviews and news, technology companies, technology developments in areas like cryptocurrencies and augmented reality, the political and social effects of technology, plus the U.K. startup scene. Aside from online and print coverage, The Telegraph will launch two new email newsletters, a weekly podcast, Amazon Alexa briefings, weekly columns, in-depth analysis and Snapchat content related to Technology Intelligence. The Telegraph is also publishing a five-part series that explores the hunt for the world’s first trillion-dollar company, written by technology special correspondent Harry de Quetteville.
“The aim is to establish The Telegraph as the leading newspaper of tech journalism,” said Allister Heath, editor of The Sunday Telegraph. “We’ll be creating globally relevant content from the British Telegraph perspective. It will enable us to generate a large and broad audience of registered users spanning every demographic with an interest in tech.”
The Telegraph has an ambitious goal of 10 million registered users; it is aiming for 3 million by the end of 2018.
“Just as the chief technology officer role has shifted from IT services to a critical business role, technology has moved from a specialist subject to one that is fundamentally part of all our lives,” said Nick Hugh, CEO of Telegraph Media Group. “It’s time to rethink our definition of technology and all the debates surrounding it — that’s the basis for launching Technology Intelligence.”
A key topic of coverage for the new vertical is regulating and taxing technology companies, with The Telegraph highlighting comments from Matt Hancock, U.K. secretary of state for digital, culture, media and sport, in the wake of Cambridge Analytica’s data breach of 50 million Facebook profiles.
“Cases [like the Cambridge Analytica] cannot go unchecked and unanswered; the harms are too great,” said Margot James, U.K. minister of state for digital, culture, media and sport, speaking with Heath on March 19 at Advertising Week in London, where platforms and their role in the media ecosystem are under scrutiny.
James stressed the need for government regulation that doesn’t stifle growth and creativity with too much red tape. “There have been voluntary codes of practice that have been successful in certain areas — terrorism, security and child abuse — without [platform] legislation,” she said, “but there is an increasing skepticism that we won’t get to where we need to be purely on a voluntary basis.”